Politics Rules

What is Politics? Politics is the way that people living in groups make decisions. Politics is about making agreements between people so that they can live together in groups such as tribes, cities, or countries. In large groups, such as countries, some people may spend a lot of their time making such agreements.

General Rules

  • Political markets are all in run or not. Candidates who withdraw from standing for posts, whether mayoral, as MPs or party leaders will be settled as losers.
    Results of elections are settled on the official declared result, later legal challenges do not count for settlement purposes.

UK Election Markets

Next General Election - Result

You're betting on: The make-up of the House of Commons after the next general election.

  • Bets on an overall majority require the party to win more than 50 per cent of the seats available in the House of Commons. If no party does so, 'No Overall Majority' will be settled as the winner. This rule is not affected by any party choosing not to take their seats.

Next General Election - Most Seats

You're betting on: The party to gain most seats in the House of Commons.

Next Prime Minister after the next General Election

You're betting on: The prime minister appointed after the next general election.

  • The government must pass a Queen's Speech or win a motion of confidence in the House of Commons.
  • If a year is specified in the market and an election is not held within this year, bets will be void.

Post Election Government

  • Bets will be settled on the first cabinet after the General Election.
  • A coalition is defined as any arrangement which results in representatives of the all of the Coalition parties named having cabinet seats in the first reformed cabinet after the election.
  • A minority government is defined as the party named having less than 326 seats, but having all cabinet seats in the first reformed cabinet after the election.
  • A majority government is defined as the party named having over 325 seats and all of the cabinet seats in the first reformed cabinet after the election.

Constituency Betting

  • Runners may be added at any time as they declare, or on request.
  • Bets on candidates who do not stand will be void.
  • Bets placed in advance of any constituency boundary changes will be made void.
  • Bets placed after polling stations have closed will be made void unless the market is being traded in-play which will be stated in the market header or market notes. 

UK Party Specials

Next Prime Minister

You're betting on: who will be the next permanent UK Prime Minister after the current one.

  • Interim or 'caretaker' Prime Ministers do not count for the purposes of this market.

Next Leader

You're betting on: The next permanent leader of a UK political party.

  • This market will be settled on the result of a standard party leadership election
    Interim or 'caretaker' leaders do not count for the purposes of this market, unless the individual leads their party into a general election.

Leader Quit Dates

You're betting on: The date when the resignation of the leader is announced.

  • This market will be settled on the date of an official public announcement.

Party Vote Share

  • Bets will be settled on the percentage of the registered vote that the named party receives in the UK as a whole, unless otherwise stated.

Seats Won/Seats Bands

  • Bets will be settled on the number of seats that the named party wins. The speaker does not count. 

Seats Exacta

  • Bets will be settled on the exact number of seats that the named party wins. The speaker does not count.

UK Referendum Markets

Referendum Result

You're betting on: The result of the referendum.

  • The result will be determined using the rules of the referendum itself. For the UK's EU referendum, for example, the winning campaign will be the one which has accrued most votes. Bets will be settled on official result only, not projections or early.

Turnout Percentage

You're betting on: The percentage of the overall UK electorate to cast a vote in the General Election.

  • Settlement will be based on the total votes cast and counted across the UK as a whole. Any subsequent legal challenge will be irrelevant for the purposes of this market.

Vote Percentage

You're betting on: The percentage of the vote accrued by the specified ballot option.

  • Bets will be settled on final percentages, not projections or early declaration.

UK Mayoral Market

Next Mayor

You're betting on: The result of the mayoral election.

  • Bets will be settled on official results only, not projections or early declarations.

London Mayoral Election

You're betting on: What percentage of total 1st preference votes will the named candidate win at the London Mayoral Election. 

  • Bets will be void if the election does not take place in the named year.
  • Bets settled on the official announced result.

US Election markets

Presidential Election Winner

You're betting on: The result of the US presidential election.

  • This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2024 presidential election. Dead-Heat rules apply.
  • This market will be settled once the projected winner is announced by the Associated Press and the losing candidate concedes. If the losing candidate does not concede, or if there is any doubt concerning the result (for instance, caused by recounts and/or potential legal challenges), then the market will be settled on the winner decided by Congress. This will be the date on which the Electoral College votes are counted in a joint session of Congress. 

Electoral College Votes

You're betting on: The number of Electoral College Votes received by the named candidate.

  • If the named candidate does not stand in the election, bets will be void.
  • Any subsequent legal challenge or withdrawal before inauguration will be irrelevant for the purposes of this market

Electoral College Markets

  • This market will be settled according to the popular vote won at the US presidential election and the respective projected electoral college votes. Any subsequent events i.e. a 'faithless elector' would have no effect on the settlement of this market.

Inauguration Specials

  • Speech Length: timed from the start of the new president's first word to the end of their final word
  • Colour of Tie: what colour tie will the named person wear? should the tie include multiple colours each colour will be settled as a win.
  • Colour of Blazer: what colour blazer will the named person wear? should the blazer include multiple colours each colour will be settled as a win.

Margin of Victory

You're betting on: Which presidential candidate wins a larger percentage of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election in the named state, and the difference in the percentages of the popular vote won by these two party candidates.

  • Percentages of the popular vote shall be determined by dividing the number of votes won by each candidate over the total of votes for all ballot-listed candidates officially reported.

Party Candidates for Presidential Election

You're betting on: The official nominee for each party in the next presidential election.

  • Bets will be settled on the official decision made at each party's national convention in the year of the presidential election.
  • Any subsequent withdrawals or overturning of the choice made at convention will be irrelevant for the purposes of this market.

Presidential State Betting

  • The market will be settled on the party which wins the popular vote on the state-wide vote share.

Presidential Election Winning Party

You're betting on: The party of the winner of the US presidential election.

  • Bets will be settled on the party of the candidate who accrues a majority of state delegates. Dead-Heat rules apply.

Politics Bingo

You're betting on: The exact words or phrases to be used in a stated speech or event.

  • Results will be settled on the official transcript.

Popular Vote

You're betting on: Which candidate will win the Popular Vote i.e. what percentage of the Popular Vote the named candidate will win.

  • These markets will be settled upon popular vote percentages as published by CNN.

State Primaries/Caucuses

You're betting on: The winner of the US state primary or caucus as part of the nomination procedure for a party's presidential candidate.

  • Bets will be settled on the candidate who accrues the most votes in aggregate across all congressional districts within a state.
  • With this in mind please note that a candidate could be awarded more delegates than their rivals but still be settled as a loser for the purposes of this market.
  • Bets will be settled on Final Alignment votes.

Total States Won / Trump States Won / Biden States Won

You're betting on: The total number of the 50 available states, individually won by popular vote.

  • Does not include District of Columbia (D.C).
  • Does not include Maine or Nebraska Districts.

Voter Turnout

You're betting on: Bets will be settled on the percentage of registered UK Voter Turnout. Any delayed votes or re-runs will not count.

Biden To Complete Full Term As President

  • Joe Biden must still be President on January 20th 2025 to have served a full term.

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