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Politics Rules

General Rules
  • Political markets are all in run or not. Candidates who withdraw from standing for posts, whether mayoral, as MPs or party leaders will be settled as losers.
  • Results of elections are settled on the official declared result, later legal challenges do not count for settlement purposes.
UK Election markets

Next General Election - Result

You’re betting on: the make-up of the House of Commons after the next general election

  • Bets on an overall majority require the party to win more than 50 per cent of the seats available in the House of Commons. If no party does so, 'No Overall Majority' will be settled as the winner. This rule is not affected by any party choosing not to take their seats.

Next General Election - Most Seats

You’re betting on: the party to gain most seats in the House of Commons

  • In the event of a tie, dead-heat rules apply.

Year of Next General Election

You’re betting on: the year in which the next UK general election will take place

  • Bets will be settled upon the official announcement of a general election

Next Prime Minister after the next General Election

You’re betting on: the prime minister appointed after the next general election

  • The government must pass a Queen's Speech or win a motion of confidence in the House of Commons
  • If a year is specified in the market and an election is not held within this year, bets will be void.
UK Party Specials

Next Leader

You’re betting on: the next permament leader of a UK political party

  • This market will be settled on the result of a standard party leadership election
  • Interim or 'caretaker' leaders do not count for the purposes of this market, unless the individual leads their party into a general election.

Leader Quit Dates

You’re betting on: the date when the resignation of the leader is announced

  • This market will be settled on the date of an official public announcement.
UK Referendum Markets

Referendum Result

You’re betting on: the result of the referendum

  • The result will be determined using the rules of the referendum itself. For the UK's EU referendum, for example, the winning campaign will be the one which has accrued most votes. Bets will be settled on official result only, not projections or early declarations

Vote Percentage

You’re betting on: the percentage of the vote accrued by the specified ballot option

  • Bets will be settled on final percentages, not projections or early declarations

Turnout Percentage

You’re betting on: the percentage of the overall electorate to cast a vote in the referendum

  • Settlement will be based on the total votes cast and counted across the UK as a whole. Any subsequent legal challenge will be irrelevant for the purposes of this market.
UK Mayoral Markets

Next Mayor

You’re betting on: the result of the mayoral election

  • Bets will be settled on official results only, not projections or early declarations
US Election markets

Presidential Election Winner

You’re betting on: the result of the US presidential election

  • Bets will be settled on the candidate who accrues a majority of electoral college votes. Dead-heat rules apply.
  • Any subsequent legal challenge or withdrawal before inauguration will be irrelevant for the purposes of this market

Presidential Election Winning Party

You’re betting on: the party of the winner of the US presidential election

  • Bets will be settled on the party of the candidate who accrues a majority of state delegates. Dead-heat rules apply.

Party Candidates for Presidential Election

You’re betting on: the official nominee for each party in the next presidential election

  • Bets will be settled on the official decision made at each party's national convention in the year of the presidential election
  • Any subsequent withdrawals or overturning of the choice made at convention will be irrelevant for the purposes of this market.

State Primaries/Caucuses

You’re betting on: the winner of the US state primary or caucus as part of the nomination procedure for a party's presidential candidate

  • Bets will be settled on the candidate who accrues the most votes in aggregate across all congressional districts within a state
  • With this in mind please note that a candidate could be awarded more delegates than his/her rivals but still be settled as a loser for the purposes of this market.

Popular Vote

You’re betting on: which candidate will win the Popular Vote? i.e. what percentage of the Popular Vote the named candidate will win

  • These markets will be settled upon popular vote percentages as published by CNN
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